It’s time to settle once and for all the claims about Bo Nix’s arm.
For some reason, there appear to be a large number of Bo Nix haters who refuse to give him credit for his rookie season performance. Many of those detractors claim to be reviewing film to create their opinions about his lack of quarterback success.
The difficulty is that what these people claim to observe on video is not supported by facts. The Denver Broncos rookie quarterback is doing well in his first season, and it’s time to expose the cold, hard facts that contradict such assumptions.
Let’s go right to the point of this examination. Air yards, completions, attempts, and other NFL statistics are all observable facts. The ball went 10 yards through the air from the line of scrimmage. The measurement of that outcome is a fact.
Second, simple math can be used to get calculations like completion % and pass rate. Unless you believe that basic math is not real, applying it to these facts will offer a foundation for comparison. For this analysis, the only calculation will be the completion %, which is simply divided.
Those who feel Nix isn’t a good enough quarterback often claim he can’t pass the ball well, or at all, to particular locations on the field. They argue that deep balls do not highlight a quarterback’s arm strength and that short passes are simple in the NFL. Let’s investigate their accusations.
Every Nix Throw | Chart
Every Nix throw is monitored by air yards, and the results are compared to every Patrick Mahomes pass through Week 12. Some consider Mahomes to be the best quarterback in the league, if not all of history.
Air-Yard Range
Let’s look at the air-yard range from 10 to 19 yards. This is the most difficult area for quarterbacks, especially those with weak arms.
Nix has attempted 73 passes to this depth. He doesn’t overly favor the left, middle, or right areas of the field, as he has a solid smattering across all areas. He has completed 50% in the 15 to 19 air-yard range and 49% in the 10 to 14 range. He has four touchdowns to one interception.
Mahomes has also attempted 73 passes to those same ranges. He has a better completion percentage. 59% and 63%, which is a sizable difference to Nix.
However, Mahomes has thrown one touchdown pass and five interceptions. Completion percentage is fine, but most coaches would rather have the four touchdowns and one interception that Nix has over the one touchdown and five interceptions that Mahomes has thrown.
Furthermore, if the first three games (Nix’s first NFL games) are removed, Nix has a more comparable completion rate to Mahomes in the 10 to 14 air-yard range (67% to 73%), as well as in the 15 to 19 air-yard range (55% to 59%).
Remember, Nix is a rookie, but Mahomes is a multiple Super Bowl-winning veteran who makes the media drool with each ball. For more background, Josh Allen is a candidate for MVP, but his completion rate in those ranges is lower than Nix’s. Allen completes 45% of his passes at both ranges. Nobody would deny that Allen has a weak arm.
Check-Down Trope
The argument that Nix is just a check-down quarterback is false, as he has thrown nine fewer passes that traveled fewer than 10 air yards than Mahomes. As a rookie, Nix is holding his own in the most difficult ranges to throw the ball in the NFL. He can fit the ball into the area of the field that many argue is difficult for quarterbacks, and he is doing it with solid success in his first season.
The opinions of the “film don’t lie” experts are unsupported by evidence. They tend to make the same two mistakes as the other 99% of part-time filmgoers.
One, they don’t understand what they’re seeing or don’t have enough context to make sense of it. Two, they have a preconceived picture of a player, and their eyes are trained to see it on film.
Analysts can falsify data in the same way, which is why the graphic above contains only factual information without hiding any passes, calculating a grade, performing other complex calculations, or expressing opinions. It is plainly visible to anyone who are willing to believe their eyes.
Nix is having a good rookie campaign, and there is reason for Broncos Country to be excited about the future of the team’s new quarterback.
