With the Juan Soto saga now coming to an end, the idea is that things will pick up at the MLB Winter Meetings, which begin on December 8th.
The Braves have a lot of holes to fill, particularly in the outfield and rotation, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Alex Anthopoulos waited for the market to clear before making a move.
Now is a terrific time to be a free agent. Teams are throwing money around like candy, especially for starting pitchers. Most recently, Luis Severino, who has a long injury history and is coming off a season with a 3.91 ERA, signed a three-year, $67 million contract with the Oakland Athletics of all teams. That’s outrageous money for a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher who has struggled to stay on the mound, which is bad news for the Braves, who must deal with luxury tax difficulties this offseason.
“According to FanGraphs’ RosterResource, the Braves’ estimated luxury tax payroll stands just north of $217 million,” Mark Bowman writes for MLB.com. “This is approximately $24 million less than MLB’s first luxury tax threshold for the 2025 season. However, the current payroll projection does not account for the combined costs of the starting pitcher, outfielder(s), and reliever(s) that Atlanta must add this winter.
Teams with payrolls above the threshold are taxed on each dollar above the threshold, with the tax rate increasing as the number of consecutive years a club exceeds the threshold. The Braves would be taxed at a 50% rate because this would be their third consecutive year exceeding the threshold.
Ideally, the Braves would like to avoid the luxury tax entirely, as three consecutive years above the threshold brings significantly higher penalties. However, given their needs, this does not appear to be practicable.
This is a team that is right in the thick of its championship window and is coming off its third consecutive first-round playoff exit. They cannot afford to stay on the sidelines while other teams in the NL East spend freely to improve themselves.
However, pretending it isn’t a problem is silly. The Braves are unlikely to go more than $10-20 million over the luxury tax, leaving them with just roughly $30-40 million to play with right now.
